French elections 2024
French Polls: Far Right in the Lead but Path Forward Unclear
This outcome has set the stage for a highly contentious second round of voting on July 7.
Paris, June 30, 2024 — France is at a political crossroads as the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, has emerged as the leading force in the first round of the snap parliamentary elections. This development marks a significant shift in the French political landscape, with potential ramifications for both domestic and international policies.
A Historic Surge
The RN's rise to prominence in the first round of voting has been nothing short of historic. Exit polls indicate that the party secured approximately 34% of the vote, outpacing the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, which garnered around 29%, and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance, Together for the Republic, which trailed with about 20% of the vote. This outcome has set the stage for a highly contentious second round of voting on July 7.
The elections, called unexpectedly by President Macron following his party's defeat in the European Parliament elections earlier this month, have seen a surge in voter turnout. Ipsos estimated that the participation rate was 65.5%, the highest since 1997. This high turnout underscores the electorate's engagement and the perceived importance of this vote.
The Path to Power
Despite the RN's strong showing, the path to forming a government remains fraught with uncertainty. France's complex electoral system means that the final composition of the National Assembly will depend on the outcomes in individual districts and potential alliances between rounds. To secure an absolute majority, the RN needs at least 289 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly.
Historically, French politics has seen the formation of a "republican front," where centrist and left-wing parties unite to block the far-right from gaining power. This dynamic is expected to play out again, with both Macron's alliance and the New Popular Front indicating that they may withdraw candidates in certain districts to support the strongest anti-RN contender.
Strategic Voting and Alliances
The upcoming week will be crucial as parties negotiate and strategize for the second round. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the New Popular Front, has already announced that his coalition will withdraw candidates who placed third in the first round to bolster the chances of defeating RN candidates. President Macron has also called for a "broad democratic alliance" to counter the far-right's influence.
However, the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain. The RN's significant lead and the public's shifting sentiments towards the party complicate traditional tactical voting approaches. The presence of triangular contests, where three candidates vie for victory in a district, further complicates efforts to consolidate the anti-RN vote.
Implications for Macron's Presidency
The potential for a far-right majority in the National Assembly poses a significant challenge to President Macron's authority. If the RN secures a majority, Macron would be forced into a "cohabitation" scenario, appointing RN President Jordan Bardella as Prime Minister. This arrangement would likely lead to a power struggle between the President and the Prime Minister, with Bardella already indicating his intention to oppose Macron's policies, particularly regarding support for Ukraine.
Macron's presidency, which extends until 2027, could be severely hampered by such a cohabitation. The President's ability to enact domestic policies would be constrained, and his influence on the international stage could be diminished. This scenario raises concerns about potential gridlock and a constitutional crisis, as the two leaders from opposing parties navigate their shared governance.
Economic and Social Concerns
The RN's rise has been fueled by widespread dissatisfaction with Macron's policies, particularly regarding economic issues and immigration. High inflation, economic challenges, and concerns over security have driven voters towards the far-right, which has promised to address these issues with stringent measures.
The RN's platform includes controversial proposals such as restricting citizenship rights for individuals born in France and limiting welfare benefits for immigrants. These policies have drawn criticism for potentially undermining fundamental human rights and democratic principles.
A Divided Nation
As France heads into the second round of voting, the nation remains deeply divided. The outcome of these elections will not only determine the composition of the National Assembly but also set the course for France's future. The potential for a far-right government has sent shockwaves through European markets and raised alarms among France's allies.
The next week will be pivotal as parties and voters alike grapple with the implications of the RN's rise. The final results will reveal whether France will see its first far-right government since World War II or if strategic alliances can prevent such an outcome. Regardless of the result, the 2024 parliamentary elections have already reshaped the French political landscape in profound ways.