Europe Politics
Far-right leads in latest poll ahead of France's legislative elections
Elabe poll indicates National Rally may win absolute majority
Paris, June 28, 2024 — France stands on the brink of a historic political shift as the far-right National Rally (RN) leads in the latest polls ahead of the legislative elections set to begin this Sunday. The elections, called unexpectedly by President Emmanuel Macron following his party's poor performance in the European Parliament elections, could potentially usher in the first far-right government since World War II.
The National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and her protégé Jordan Bardella, is projected to secure between 260 and 295 seats in the National Assembly, just shy of or slightly surpassing the 289-seat threshold needed for an outright majority. This surge in support, reflected in multiple polls, underscores a significant shift in the French political landscape, driven by growing public discontent with the current administration and increasing polarization.
Polling Data and Projections
According to a recent OpinionWay survey, the RN could capture up to 37% of the popular vote, marking a two-point increase from the previous week. Meanwhile, Macron's centrist Renaissance party is projected to garner around 20%, trailing behind the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, which holds steady at 28%. Another poll by Elabe for BFM TV forecasts that the RN and its allies could secure 260-295 seats, potentially granting them a significant mandate for governance.
The electoral process in France requires candidates to secure over 50% of the vote to win a parliamentary seat outright in the first round. If this threshold is not met, the top two contenders, along with those receiving more than 12.5% of registered voters' support, advance to a second round. This system often leads to strategic voting and complex political maneuvering between rounds.
Political Implications and Potential Outcomes
The possibility of an RN-led government or a hung parliament has unsettled financial markets, with French government bond risk premiums reaching their widest margin since the 2012 eurozone crisis. An outright victory for the RN would necessitate a period of cohabitation with President Macron, marking the first time a French president would have to share power with a party outside the traditional political spectrum.
Cohabitation, a scenario where the president and prime minister come from opposing parties, could lead to significant policy clashes and governance challenges. During previous cohabitations, the president retained control over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense, while the prime minister managed domestic policies. However, the stark ideological differences between Macron's centrist administration and the far-right RN could exacerbate tensions.
Campaign Dynamics and Public Sentiment
The RN's growing popularity appears to stem from widespread feelings of insecurity and dissatisfaction with the current government's handling of economic and social issues. Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN leader and potential prime minister, has capitalized on these sentiments, emphasizing themes of national sovereignty, immigration control, and law enforcement.
In a recent TV debate, Bardella stated, "Our compatriots have the feeling that the state no longer enforces its laws, that the state is weak with the strong and strong with the weak." This message has resonated with many voters, particularly in rural and suburban areas where economic hardships and concerns about immigration are more pronounced.
Strategic Voting and Coalition Building
As the first round of voting approaches, the potential for strategic alliances and tactical voting looms large. Historically, French voters have often united across political lines to prevent far-right victories. However, the current political landscape, marked by deep polarization and shifting allegiances, may challenge traditional voting patterns.
The left-wing New Popular Front, led by Socialist Raphaël Glucksmann, aims to counter the far-right surge with policies focused on social justice, climate action, and economic reform. Meanwhile, Macron's Renaissance party continues to advocate for pro-EU and environmental policies, despite facing criticism for perceived detachment from public concerns.
Conclusion
The outcome of the upcoming legislative elections will have profound implications for France's political future and its role within the European Union. Whether the RN secures an outright majority or the elections result in a hung parliament, the ensuing political dynamics will shape the country's governance and policy direction for years to come. As France prepares to vote, the world watches closely, anticipating the potential ramifications of this pivotal moment in French history.